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Friday, January 27, 2012

2012 Economic Forecast, Birmingham Business Journal and Samford Brock School of Business


I phone?  Check.  Business Plan?  Check.  Clients? Check.  Crystal Ball?  I wish!  What are the drivers of business as we enter into 2012?  According to speakers for the recent Birmingham Business Journal event, they include the European Debt Crisis, China, Hiring and Labor Force Expectations, Growth issues, tax policy and the election.
An esteemed foursome of speakers addressed the potentials for business as we move in to 2012 at the Birmingham Business Journal’s 2012 Economic Forecast Panel held at Samford University  Brock School of Business this past week.  The discussion was similar to last years event, and according to the panel,  the slow pace of economic recovery last year will remain relatively unchanged in 2012 and could continue into 2013 or longerSamford University.
The four panelists included Sara Helms,  an economics professor and research associate at the Lister Hill Center for Health Policy; Ahmad Ijaz, director of economic forecasting at the University of Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research, John Norris, a wealth management and investment services professional at Oakworth Capital Bank, and Rick Davis, senior vice president of economic development for the Birmingham Business Alliance.
ncertainty stemming from indecision and political infighting in Washington and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis were listed as primary factors causing the slow growth.  According to Norris, “Europe is a problem that is a long time coming.”  Ijaz interjected that, “An attempt with Europe to have one currency but 17 different monetary policies will continue to struggle, and perhaps cease to exist.”  With respect to Europe and debt problems, the question is will Europe hang together or splinter apart.   “The great unknown is China with its slow down and it will have a profound impact,” Norris continued.  Citing an anticipated slow down in China’s high-speed economic growth that is expected to further impact the global economy, they projected the slow economic recovery would continue in 2013 as the private sector continues de-leveraging.
On a state level, the economy is growing, but very slowly with a suggested 2.5-3.0% growth for this year and a modest 1-1.5% growth in employment.  Davis challenged the group to “Stop calling this a Recovery.  We have not gotten out of the woods yet, and we are still ringing distressed assets out.”  “If you want 4 percent growth, you may have to wait a few years,” said panelist John Norris.
One of the greatest challenges for 2012 will be how to manage the uncertainty.  Most shift in to neutral when the future is colored with unpredictable waves.  From hiring to predictions of growth, much is unknown.  “Most businesses are just not sure what capital investments they should make or whether they should hire,” Ijaz said. 
There are two halves to the issue of hiring and labor, and proper worker expectations play a big part in any true recovery.  Some discussion was made by the group to addressing not only high school completion, but also training in tech related jobs.  There was a stated observation of a general unwillingness of new college graduates to take more simple entry level work.  According to Norris, “Goal setting should be to find a way for the (new graduates) to set themselves apart.  Do what is beneath you to get experience.  Focus on work ethic, and start at the bottom with a goal to work up.” Helms added, “The Occupy movement has shown us that people have degrees of very little value.”  Birmingham Business Alliance
The group agreed that recovering job sectors include science, technology, medicine and health services – areas the Birmingham region is well positioned to capitalize upon.  But, commercial real estate, development in any manner related to the bubble, and manufacturing will decline.  What does the future of manufacturing look like then?  The group discussed the public service announcement by Mike Roe of Dirty Jobs and the effort to encourage students to pursue advanced manufacturing jobs.  These high tech manufacturing jobs are high knowledge base, and it “ain’t your Daddy’s work shop” anymore.  White lab coats are taking the place of the fiery shop floor, and the highly trained, tech manufacturing worker is in certainly in demand.
With respect to unemployment, Helms cited 42-45% of the unemployed as having been unemployed for 6 months or longer.  Retraining is needed because your skills start to atrophy.  Davis also cited that 15% of the businesses create 50% of the jobs, and this must change to become sustainable. 
With regard to Banking, Davis describes the state we see now as the “new normal”.  “Actually the new normal is the old normal if you take a brief glance at the past.  Remember when you had to actually save some money for a down payment?” he reminded the group.  Now you must put some skin in the game, and banks are requiring up to 35% collateral for some loans.  Norris reminded the group that banks are “those places that you go to borrow money, when you don’t need any.”   
Turning it around?  This will certainly take some time to accomplish.  Ijaz cited that while the 2001 recession took 44-45 months to recover, the 2008 recession may take 3, 4 or even 5 years. 
These are defining times.  Pay attention, educate yourself, and do a quick roll up of your sleeves to get this one done.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Public Relations vs. Publicity: What is the price of a reputation?


As you work to get ahead of the pack in your industry, and certainly as we move into an election year, I know the rhetoric and spin will begin to ramp up.  According to the Bloomberg Business (7/2007) businesses spent a hefty 4.2 Billion dollars on the Public Relations industry in an effort to craft a good image and reputation, or at least one that you will believe.  Let’s take a few minutes to sift through what that can mean for your customers, or the voting public. 
Publicity is to Limelight as Public Relations is to Spin.  Sounds like an excerpt from an ACT test, but if you think about it, it is all a matter of perspective.  The two words, and attached roles, of publicity and public relations are often used interchangeably by the novice, and it is important to appreciate the distinction between the two.  
            There are also two sides to every view, and one man’s bad publicity event is another man’s opportunity for being seen.  One man’s Public Relations frustration is another man’s chance for spin and opportunism. 
            Publicity is, put simply, public exposure or notoriety.  Public Relations is the business of inducing the public to have understanding for and good will toward a person, firm or institution.  Public Relations can be accomplished with publicity, but it is not the only way.  A good Public Relations strategy is more than just the simplistic calling in of media and putting up a few microphones.  A strong Public Relations strategy meets the public where they are and fosters a positive image and relationship via multiple avenues to include support of the arts, charitable causes, education, sporting events and civic engagement.  It creates true good will.
            More recently in public relations, professionals are using technology as their main tool to get their messages to target audiences. With the creation of social networks, blogs, and even Internet radio public relations professionals are able to send direct messages through these mediums that attract the target audiences. Methods used to find out what is appealing to target audiences include the use of surveys, conducting research or even focus groups. Tactics are the ways to attract target audiences by using the information gathered about that audience and directing a message to them using tools such as social mediums or other technology. Another emerging theme is the application of impression management.  The psychology behind impression management works to cultivate perception, and as you know, perception is reality.  Done well, impression management works to cultivate reputation capital, and build trustworthiness.  It is important to know that public image, be it to the soda you drink, car you drive, or leader that you select, gets a lot of thought committed to driving how you think and what you choose. 
            Seasoned Public Relations Professionals and Publicity Leads take a few years to learn their craft by completing degrees in communications, marketing, finance, engineering, healthcare and more and least at the Bachelors but often at the Masters Level.  Even with appropriate educational training and experience, there are rookie Public Relations and Publicity mistakes o’plenty to be made.  A public relations strategy for any business big or small is key for brand development, so why skimp and just dole the job out to the most junior of team member, or the one that is most easily lead or the most likely to “say what you want to hear” not the more useful item of “what you need” to hear?  It is important to recognize here that Public Relations is not Marketing.  Separate from Publicity and Public Relations is the entirely unique discipline of Marketing.  And Marketing is not Sales.  And so on and so on goes the list of disciplines of thought that are needed to keep the engine of your business, organization or government, big or small, humming away.   
            The world of information is changing so quickly that it is vital to stay on top by taking the time to educate and train yourself, and expect the same of your team.